The LPC Centre for Risk Sciences in partnership with the Association of British Insurers (ABI) have published a report on the research they have managed which aims to anticipate crime trends in the UK over the next 20 years.

Future crime trends in the UK

This work has been conducted alongside government and academic research designed to predict the types and levels of future crime activity in the UK, so that appropriate police, community and social response strategies can be created. Using data analysed from the British Crime Survey up until 1998, information collected from the Government’s Foresight Programme, and the opinion of experts, future crime trend scenarios can be predicted.

Professionals involved in crime reduction strategies will benefit from this review of the research by obtaining a better understanding of future crime trends. Insurers gain the additional benefits of an understanding of new and emerging markets for insurance in this area.

The technical objectives were to provide a description of future social and technological developments likely to occur in the UK in the next twenty years; to examine the probability that such developments could elicit criminal activity and loss; and review the implications of both scenarios for insurers and risk managers. Focus is made on quantifying the probability of certain crime trends occurring, rather than provide readers with a technical analysis of present and future technology.

This work has been conducted in support of the Governments future look at crime.  For further information visit the Government-led Foresight programme web-site.

Dr Jeremy Hodge (LPC/BRE) managed the project on behalf of ABI. Professor Ken Pease, Michelle Rogerson, Michelle Grundy and affiliate Dan Ellingworth of the Applied Criminology Group, University of Huddersfield undertook the research work and report drafting. The report was edited by Nicholas Bollons (LPC/BRE).

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